Nov. 22, 2021

Be or Not to Be?

Will be the Best Choice for the U.S.’s President, to try to restore the Liberal ideology within the International Order? Or it would be better to revolutionize the traditional paradigm of the U.S.’s Foreign Policy approach? 

Executive Summary

The last election in the United States marked another important variation in the attitude and approach to policymaking and foreign affairs by the American Government. After the Bush Administration, who imprinted a new conception of America’s role and securitization issues in the World through the “War on Terror”. The Obama Administration who, in some ways, continued what Bush started, in different approach and ideology. The real change arose during the Trump Presidency, where there has been a complete paradigm shift. Today, the election of Joseph Biden, the resurgence of Democrats and Liberal conception in International Relations, will lead to a new variation in the American behaviour, globally. The revival of some concept will be at centre of his programme, such as ecology and environmental issues, the role in Middle-east, the China’s position in the International Order and a different approach in dealing with it, the restoration of liaisons with the old Partners, and the return to the old Treaties such as the Paris Agreement on climate change or the JCPOA with Iran. However, many problems and issues could arise, and we are going to analyse them in the paper. Returning to the classical Liberal conception of the international order, the implications could be several and variegated. 

Bush, Obama, and Trump Administrations in Comparison – Excursus of the Major Upheavals in the conception        of  the International Order  

Despite all the mistakes and misjudgements, the President G. W. Bush changed the face of United States; with him began the new era of American foreign policy. The clear return to a strong American Realism – or, as some critics said, Jingoism – led to the begin of tensions with the traditional allies, mainly the Europe, who seek for major cooperation.

However, the real variation and shift of U.S.’s decision-making came after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. A doctrine of prevention called for offensive rather than defensive military policies, contrary mostly to the International Law. So, from the politics of “containment” to policies aimed to selected aggression, with great disapproval from some foreign leaders. 

The morality and the view of the American destiny brought by George W. Bush continued, in some ways, during the Obama Administration, in which the current President of the United States Joe Biden, held the position of Vice President. Bringing into the field the Jeffersonians’ tradition of American foreign policy, the first Afro-American President seek the America’s manifest destiny through the expansion of America’s role, globally. Returning to a Liberal and Democrats politics, the original design of Obama global strategy was, in the intentions, a mix of distension, withdrawal, and engagement. Proposing détente with Russia, Sunni Islam, and Iran; withdrawal, that happened in part, from Iraq; and a new engagement in Asia. Not all the Americans, nor foreign observers, comprehended or agreed with Obama foreign policy . The failure in many other foreign issues have raised many questions point about Obama’s International strategy and policymaking. The result of the “failure” in some important topic for U.S.’s observers, led to the election of Donald Trump, who defined a point break with his predecessors. The withdrawal from important agreements such as the JCPOA with Iran, the Paris Agreement on climate change, the hard restrictions to immigration, the discontinuous relationship with the allies, and the trade war with China, led to a different images of the U.S., globally.  The election of Joe Biden on November 2020 indicates the will by Americans to a new change in U.S.’s policymaking and a new role of the United States in the Global International Order.

Climate and Energy as the Economic Boost

Defining climate change as “the greatest threat to our security”, the Liberal programme of the neo-elected President Joe Biden rely a lot on climate and environmental issues. The Green New Deal (2019), the programme released on 2019 by the President, seeks to break down the emission and pollution in general, through investment in new infrastructure, a society-wide effort, creating new jobs, and advance social justice (A. Ward, 2020). Nonetheless, one of the main topic will be the coming back to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, with the aim to use trade policy as climate tool by putting tariffs on high-carbon products from other countries. The goal is to invest more than $2 trillion to achieve the carbon-free electricity sector by 2035, build clean infrastructure, invest in low-income communities.  It is evident the net contraposition with his predecessor.

China, Trade War, and Cyber-Security

If we can find something that, broadly, approach the new President to his predecessors, is the general point of view, proper of most of the Americans, on the role of China in the International Order. While the vision on China is the similar, the policy approach will differ much more. Indeed, during the Trump Presidency, Biden hardly criticised the conduction of the “Trade War” against China, defining the country as “the big winner”.  

The purposes of the new President are to invigorate the U.S as a Pacific power, through an increasing naval presence in the AsiaPacific and the creation of strong relationships with countries such as Australia, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea. Asking for a major transparency from Beijing, Biden wants to make a common front with the old allies, and the “free world” in general, to face the “hightech Authoritarianism” of China, through the definition of rules, norms, policies, and institutions, that could help in the global use of new technologies. 

The Cybersecurity is another important topic, or at least should be, in the President Agenda. The fear for the vulnerability of U.S. cyber infrastructure is real, and the major threats come from China and Russia who seeks to exploit the loopholes in the U.S. cyber administration and to break into the financial industry. Attacks, sabotage, and infiltration caused many problems to U.S. security. The goal of the President is to reduce the role of China globally and try to stop the Chinese “dystopian” surveillance technologies.

Many issues are on the President Agenda, regarding the role of China. In here, there is a quick overview on some major topics. However, we cannot forget the Hong Kong question, or the detention of the Uyghur in the Xinjian, the BRI, the role in Africa, the expansion in the Pacific, and many others that see the International arena and countries as crucial actors in the support and decision.    

What’s The End in The Middle East?

As well-known, the Middle East still remain one the main issue to face for all the U.S.’s Presidents that have followed. After the Obama administration who dealt with Iran, signing the JCPOA, and the Trump administration who withdrawal from the same and stirred the waters through his evident preference to Israel and the troops retirement from Iraq; the new administration have to deal with the many issues arising in the Region  . What is clear is that the President Biden will return to the Obama policy of elevating Iran at the expenses of Israel and Sunni states. The will to re-enter into the JCPOA it’s manifest, asking already for more cooperation by Iran. Even if the President won’t have the same “special-relationship” with Israel as Trump, he has been a strong supporter of the country. Nonetheless, he wants to come back to the two-state solution for Israel-Palestinian conflict, made even worse by the Trump administration. From Syria to Iraq, to Saudi Arabia as well, the neo-elected President wants to shift the policymaking approach of the American politics made in the last 5 years and come back to a more diplomatic and collaborating attitude.   

Conclusion  and Recommendations

This brief wants to highlight the new changes and variations that the new government is going to adopt and deal with. The return to the Liberal conception of the International Order, approaching with the Obama influence in policymaking, is not a zero-sum game, and the role of Joe Biden will be crucial for the future place that the U.S. is going to fill in the Global Order, mainly related to the next moves of China. 

Recommending the following policy actions.

• In this context, they should consider a different approach to the classical Liberal conception and try to be resilient to contemporary times, due to the new actors risen the International Arena, who takes with them different interests and new coalition.
• The green transition should be used as economic and environmental boost, that can lead to a development and a shift in the supply chain, and probably more cooperation with the foreign countries, that could help in this transition and in an improvement of the economic transformation. Considering also the revival of carbon during Trump presidency, the shift is necessary 
• The Biden Administration, with its Liberal approach, should use a diplomatic approach to regain the relationship with all the allies that in recent times preferred the China side, mainly in economic and trade terms. On the side of Security and Cybersecurity, he should use a closer approach to Trump. The hard punch with China would be the best way, mainly related to theft of Intellectual Property, corporate secrets, and Governmental file. Obviously, this should be followed by an improvement in Cybersecurity intelligence and security tools.  Nonetheless, the President should take an eye on the expansion in the Pacific.
• The U.S.’s coming back to a Liberal conception of foreign policy, should maintain the role adopted by the President Trump in Iraq with the retirement of the troops and continue the process of leaving (militarily) the country. Moreover, the Israeli-Palestinian question should be a central topic and, the two-state approach would not be the best choice but could be a short-term solution to a return to normality, reconsidering also the question of the embassy in Jerusalem. 

Gianmarco Scollo

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